A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
